Kampong 1–3 RKAV Volendam: Result & Stats

Kampong

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

RKAV Volendam

12/9/2023

Derde Divisie - Saturday · Girone A - 16Sportpark Maarschalkerweerd

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Kampong37%

×Draw23%

RKAV Volendam40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KampongExpected goals in this matchRKAV Volendam

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.67

Kampong

1.60

RKAV Volendam

1.67

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 34 away

1.00

creates per match

1.74

1.59

allows per match

2.21

creates per match

Kampong

1.00

RKAV Volendam

1.74

allows per match

Kampong

1.59

RKAV Volendam

2.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kampong+0.00on par

RKAV Volendam+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kampong ↓

RKAV Volendam →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Kampong or draw

60%

Kampong or RKAV Volendam

77%

Draw or RKAV Volendam

63%

Winning margin

Kampong wins by 2+

18%

RKAV Volendam wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Kampong 1+ goals

80%

Kampong 2+ goals

47%

Kampong 3+ goals

22%

RKAV Volendam 1+ goals

81%

RKAV Volendam 2+ goals

50%

RKAV Volendam 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Kampong (draw refunded)

48%

RKAV Volendam (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kampong at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.59 · 17 matches

RKAV Volendam away — creates 1.74, concedes 2.21 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kampong attack 1.00 + RKAV Volendam defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.60

RKAV Volendam attack 1.74 + Kampong defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Kampong scores more

37%

level

23%

RKAV Volendam scores more

40%

RKAV Volendam at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "RKAV Volendam will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff