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Kampong vs HSV ODIN 59 — Derde Divisie - Saturday 2019

Kampong
Kampong
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
HSV ODIN 59
HSV ODIN 59
11/11/2023Derde Divisie - SaturdayDerde Divisie - Saturday · Girone A - 12Sportpark Maarschalkerweerd

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Kampong43%
×Draw23%
HSV ODIN 5934%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kampong
1.72
HSV ODIN 59
1.51

Kampong creates 14% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 46 away

creates per match

Kampong
1.00
HSV ODIN 59
1.43

allows per match

Kampong
1.59
HSV ODIN 59
2.43

finishing

Kampong+0.00on par
HSV ODIN 59+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kampong ↓

HSV ODIN 59 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Kampong or draw
66%
Kampong or HSV ODIN 59
77%
Draw or HSV ODIN 59
57%

Winning margin

Kampong wins by 2+
22%
HSV ODIN 59 wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Kampong 1+ goals
82%
Kampong 2+ goals
51%
Kampong 3+ goals
25%
HSV ODIN 59 1+ goals
78%
HSV ODIN 59 2+ goals
44%
HSV ODIN 59 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Kampong (draw refunded)
56%
HSV ODIN 59 (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kampong at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.59 · 17 matches

HSV ODIN 59 away — creates 1.43, concedes 2.43 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kampong attack 1.00 + HSV ODIN 59 defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 1.72

HSV ODIN 59 attack 1.43 + Kampong defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Kampong scores more
43%
level
23%
HSV ODIN 59 scores more
34%

Kampong at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Kampong will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Derde Divisie - Saturday: Kampong 2–2 HSV ODIN 59

Kampong and HSV ODIN 59 drew 2-2 in Derde Divisie - Saturday on November 11, 2023.

The match was played at Sportpark Maarschalkerweerd in Utrecht.