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Kampong vs Harkemase Boys — Derde Divisie - Saturday 2019

Kampong
Kampong
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Harkemase Boys
Harkemase Boys
9/9/2023Derde Divisie - SaturdayDerde Divisie - Saturday · Girone A - 4Sportpark Maarschalkerweerd

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Kampong30%
×Draw24%
Harkemase Boys46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kampong
1.29
Harkemase Boys
1.64

Harkemase Boys creates 27% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 98 away

creates per match

Kampong
1.00
Harkemase Boys
1.68

allows per match

Kampong
1.59
Harkemase Boys
1.59

finishing

Kampong+0.00on par
Harkemase Boys+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kampong ↓

Harkemase Boys →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Kampong or draw
54%
Kampong or Harkemase Boys
76%
Draw or Harkemase Boys
70%

Winning margin

Kampong wins by 2+
13%
Harkemase Boys wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Kampong 1+ goals
72%
Kampong 2+ goals
37%
Kampong 3+ goals
14%
Harkemase Boys 1+ goals
81%
Harkemase Boys 2+ goals
49%
Harkemase Boys 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Kampong (draw refunded)
40%
Harkemase Boys (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kampong at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.59 · 17 matches

Harkemase Boys away — creates 1.68, concedes 1.59 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kampong attack 1.00 + Harkemase Boys defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.29

Harkemase Boys attack 1.68 + Kampong defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Kampong scores more
30%
level
24%
Harkemase Boys scores more
46%

Harkemase Boys at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Harkemase Boys will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kampong vs Harkemase Boys

Harkemase Boys beat Kampong 1-0 in Derde Divisie - Saturday on September 9, 2023.

The match was played at Sportpark Maarschalkerweerd in Utrecht.