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Kamphaeng Phet vs Samut Sakhon City — FA Cup 2018

Kamphaeng Phet
Kamphaeng Phet
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Samut Sakhon City
Samut Sakhon Cityadvanced
1/29/2025FA CupFA Cup · Round of 32Chakangrao Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Kamphaeng Phet56%
×Draw19%
Samut Sakhon City25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kamphaeng Phet
2.62
Samut Sakhon City
1.75

Kamphaeng Phet creates 50% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

creates per match

Kamphaeng Phet
2.40
Samut Sakhon City
2.50

allows per match

Kamphaeng Phet
1.00
Samut Sakhon City
2.83

finishing

Kamphaeng Phet+0.00on par
Samut Sakhon City+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kamphaeng Phet ↓

Samut Sakhon City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
63%37%4.5
43%57%

Double chance

Kamphaeng Phet or draw
75%
Kamphaeng Phet or Samut Sakhon City
81%
Draw or Samut Sakhon City
44%

Winning margin

Kamphaeng Phet wins by 2+
36%
Samut Sakhon City wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Kamphaeng Phet 1+ goals
93%
Kamphaeng Phet 2+ goals
73%
Kamphaeng Phet 3+ goals
48%
Samut Sakhon City 1+ goals
83%
Samut Sakhon City 2+ goals
52%
Samut Sakhon City 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Kamphaeng Phet (draw refunded)
69%
Samut Sakhon City (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
71%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kamphaeng Phet at home — creates 2.40, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

Samut Sakhon City away — creates 2.50, concedes 2.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kamphaeng Phet attack 2.40 + Samut Sakhon City defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 2.62

Samut Sakhon City attack 2.50 + Kamphaeng Phet defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Kamphaeng Phet scores more
56%
level
19%
Samut Sakhon City scores more
25%

Kamphaeng Phet at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Kamphaeng Phet will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Cup: Kamphaeng Phet 0–2 Samut Sakhon City

Samut Sakhon City beat Kamphaeng Phet 2-0 in FA Cup on January 29, 2025.

The match was played at Chakangrao Stadium in Nai Mueang, Mueang, Kamphaeng Phet.