Kamphaeng Phet 4–1 Royal Thai Fleet: Result & Stats

Kamphaeng Phet

4 – 1

Royal Thai Fleet

10/4/2023

FA Cup · 1st RoundChakangrao Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Kamphaeng Phet70%

×Draw17%

Royal Thai Fleet13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kamphaeng PhetExpected goals in this matchRoyal Thai Fleet

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.50

1.00

Kamphaeng Phet

2.50

Royal Thai Fleet

1.00

Kamphaeng Phet creates 150% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

2.40

creates per match

1.00

allows per match

2.60

creates per match

Kamphaeng Phet

2.40

Royal Thai Fleet

1.00

allows per match

Kamphaeng Phet

1.00

Royal Thai Fleet

2.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kamphaeng Phet+0.00on par

Royal Thai Fleet+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kamphaeng Phet ↓

Royal Thai Fleet →

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–08%

1–18%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4–05%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

46%54%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Kamphaeng Phet or draw

87%

Kamphaeng Phet or Royal Thai Fleet

83%

Draw or Royal Thai Fleet

30%

Winning margin

Kamphaeng Phet wins by 2+

47%

Royal Thai Fleet wins by 2+

Team goals

Kamphaeng Phet 1+ goals

92%

Kamphaeng Phet 2+ goals

71%

Kamphaeng Phet 3+ goals

45%

Royal Thai Fleet 1+ goals

63%

Royal Thai Fleet 2+ goals

26%

Royal Thai Fleet 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Kamphaeng Phet (draw refunded)

84%

Royal Thai Fleet (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Kamphaeng Phet at home — creates 2.40, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

Royal Thai Fleet away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Kamphaeng Phet attack 2.40 + Royal Thai Fleet defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.50

Royal Thai Fleet attack 1.00 + Kamphaeng Phet defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 70%?"

Kamphaeng Phet scores more

70%

level

17%

Royal Thai Fleet scores more

13%

Kamphaeng Phet at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Kamphaeng Phet will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff