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Kamphaeng Phet vs Nong Bua Pitchaya — FA Cup 2018

Kamphaeng Phet
Kamphaeng Phet
Pens
0 – 0
Nong Bua Pitchaya
Nong Bua Pitchaya
4/4/2018FA CupFA Cup · 1st Qualifying Round

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Kamphaeng Phet47%
×Draw22%
Nong Bua Pitchaya31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kamphaeng Phet
1.98
Nong Bua Pitchaya
1.59

Kamphaeng Phet creates 25% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 11 away

creates per match

Kamphaeng Phet
2.40
Nong Bua Pitchaya
2.18

allows per match

Kamphaeng Phet
1.00
Nong Bua Pitchaya
1.55

finishing

Kamphaeng Phet+0.00on par
Nong Bua Pitchaya+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kamphaeng Phet ↓

Nong Bua Pitchaya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Kamphaeng Phet or draw
69%
Kamphaeng Phet or Nong Bua Pitchaya
78%
Draw or Nong Bua Pitchaya
53%

Winning margin

Kamphaeng Phet wins by 2+
26%
Nong Bua Pitchaya wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Kamphaeng Phet 1+ goals
86%
Kamphaeng Phet 2+ goals
59%
Kamphaeng Phet 3+ goals
31%
Nong Bua Pitchaya 1+ goals
80%
Nong Bua Pitchaya 2+ goals
47%
Nong Bua Pitchaya 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Kamphaeng Phet (draw refunded)
60%
Nong Bua Pitchaya (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kamphaeng Phet at home — creates 2.40, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

Nong Bua Pitchaya away — creates 2.18, concedes 1.55 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kamphaeng Phet attack 2.40 + Nong Bua Pitchaya defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.98

Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 2.18 + Kamphaeng Phet defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Kamphaeng Phet scores more
47%
level
22%
Nong Bua Pitchaya scores more
31%

Kamphaeng Phet at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Kamphaeng Phet will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kamphaeng Phet vs Nong Bua Pitchaya

Kamphaeng Phet and Nong Bua Pitchaya drew 0-0 in FA Cup on April 4, 2018.