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Kamphaeng Phet vs Dome — FA Cup 2018

Kamphaeng Phet
Kamphaeng Phet
FT
3 – 1
Dome
Dome
9/29/2021FA CupFA Cup · Qualifying RoundKhanu Woralaksaburi School Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Kamphaeng Phet56%
×Draw23%
Dome21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kamphaeng Phet
1.82
Dome
1.00

Kamphaeng Phet creates 82% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

creates per match

Kamphaeng Phet
2.40
Dome
1.00

allows per match

Kamphaeng Phet
1.00
Dome
1.25

finishing

Kamphaeng Phet+0.00on par
Dome+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kamphaeng Phet ↓

Dome →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Kamphaeng Phet or draw
79%
Kamphaeng Phet or Dome
77%
Draw or Dome
44%

Winning margin

Kamphaeng Phet wins by 2+
32%
Dome wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Kamphaeng Phet 1+ goals
84%
Kamphaeng Phet 2+ goals
54%
Kamphaeng Phet 3+ goals
27%
Dome 1+ goals
63%
Dome 2+ goals
26%
Dome 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Kamphaeng Phet (draw refunded)
73%
Dome (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kamphaeng Phet at home — creates 2.40, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

Dome away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kamphaeng Phet attack 2.40 + Dome defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.82

Dome attack 1.00 + Kamphaeng Phet defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Kamphaeng Phet scores more
56%
level
23%
Dome scores more
21%

Kamphaeng Phet at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Kamphaeng Phet will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kamphaeng Phet vs Dome

Kamphaeng Phet beat Dome 3-1 in FA Cup on September 29, 2021.

The match was played at Khanu Woralaksaburi School Stadium in Saen To.