Kamphaeng Phet 1–1 Ayutthaya FC: Result & Stats

Kamphaeng Phet

AET

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Ayutthaya FC

11/20/2024

FA Cup · 2nd RoundChakangrao Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Kamphaeng Phet70%

×Draw16%

Ayutthaya FC14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kamphaeng PhetExpected goals in this matchAyutthaya FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.70

1.13

Kamphaeng Phet

2.70

Ayutthaya FC

1.13

Kamphaeng Phet creates 139% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

2.40

creates per match

1.25

1.00

allows per match

3.00

creates per match

Kamphaeng Phet

2.40

Ayutthaya FC

1.25

allows per match

Kamphaeng Phet

1.00

Ayutthaya FC

3.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kamphaeng Phet+0.00on par

Ayutthaya FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kamphaeng Phet ↓

Ayutthaya FC →

0–02%

0–13%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1–06%

1–17%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–40%

4–05%

4–16%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Kamphaeng Phet or draw

86%

Kamphaeng Phet or Ayutthaya FC

84%

Draw or Ayutthaya FC

30%

Winning margin

Kamphaeng Phet wins by 2+

49%

Ayutthaya FC wins by 2+

Team goals

Kamphaeng Phet 1+ goals

93%

Kamphaeng Phet 2+ goals

75%

Kamphaeng Phet 3+ goals

50%

Ayutthaya FC 1+ goals

68%

Ayutthaya FC 2+ goals

31%

Ayutthaya FC 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Kamphaeng Phet (draw refunded)

84%

Ayutthaya FC (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Kamphaeng Phet at home — creates 2.40, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

Ayutthaya FC away — creates 1.25, concedes 3.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Kamphaeng Phet attack 2.40 + Ayutthaya FC defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.70

Ayutthaya FC attack 1.25 + Kamphaeng Phet defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 70%?"

Kamphaeng Phet scores more

70%

level

16%

Ayutthaya FC scores more

14%

Kamphaeng Phet at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Kamphaeng Phet will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kamphaeng Phet vs Ayutthaya FC

Kamphaeng Phet and Ayutthaya FC drew 1-1 in FA Cup on November 20, 2024.

The match was played at Chakangrao Stadium in Nai Mueang, Mueang, Kamphaeng Phet.

Kamphaeng Phet vs Ayutthaya FC — FA Cup 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Kamphaeng Phet vs Ayutthaya FC