Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Kamen Ivanbegovina vs Uskok Klis — Third NL - Jug 2019

Kamen Ivanbegovina
Kamen Ivanbegovina
FT
4 – 1
Uskok Klis
Uskok Klis
2/18/2023Third NL - JugThird NL - Jug · South - 16Igralište NK Kamen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 87+ matches

Kamen Ivanbegovina50%
×Draw25%
Uskok Klis25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kamen Ivanbegovina
1.64
Uskok Klis
1.08

Kamen Ivanbegovina creates 52% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 87 away

creates per match

Kamen Ivanbegovina
1.72
Uskok Klis
0.89

allows per match

Kamen Ivanbegovina
1.28
Uskok Klis
1.56

finishing

Kamen Ivanbegovina+0.00on par
Uskok Klis+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kamen Ivanbegovina ↓

Uskok Klis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Kamen Ivanbegovina or draw
75%
Kamen Ivanbegovina or Uskok Klis
75%
Draw or Uskok Klis
50%

Winning margin

Kamen Ivanbegovina wins by 2+
27%
Uskok Klis wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Kamen Ivanbegovina 1+ goals
81%
Kamen Ivanbegovina 2+ goals
49%
Kamen Ivanbegovina 3+ goals
23%
Uskok Klis 1+ goals
66%
Uskok Klis 2+ goals
29%
Uskok Klis 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Kamen Ivanbegovina (draw refunded)
67%
Uskok Klis (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kamen Ivanbegovina at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.28 · 102 matches

Uskok Klis away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.56 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kamen Ivanbegovina attack 1.72 + Uskok Klis defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.64

Uskok Klis attack 0.89 + Kamen Ivanbegovina defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Kamen Ivanbegovina scores more
50%
level
25%
Uskok Klis scores more
25%

Kamen Ivanbegovina at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Kamen Ivanbegovina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kamen Ivanbegovina vs Uskok Klis

Kamen Ivanbegovina beat Uskok Klis 4-1 in Third NL - Jug on February 18, 2023.

The match was played at Igralište NK Kamen in Ivanbegovina.