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Kamen Ivanbegovina vs Otok — Third NL - Jug 2019

Kamen Ivanbegovina
Kamen Ivanbegovina
FT
1 – 1
Otok
Otok
10/30/2021Third NL - JugThird NL - Jug · South - 13Igralište NK Kamen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Kamen Ivanbegovina63%
×Draw20%
Otok18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kamen Ivanbegovina
2.21
Otok
1.08

Kamen Ivanbegovina creates 105% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 33 away

creates per match

Kamen Ivanbegovina
1.72
Otok
0.88

allows per match

Kamen Ivanbegovina
1.28
Otok
2.70

finishing

Kamen Ivanbegovina+0.00on par
Otok+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kamen Ivanbegovina ↓

Otok →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Kamen Ivanbegovina or draw
82%
Kamen Ivanbegovina or Otok
80%
Draw or Otok
37%

Winning margin

Kamen Ivanbegovina wins by 2+
40%
Otok wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Kamen Ivanbegovina 1+ goals
89%
Kamen Ivanbegovina 2+ goals
65%
Kamen Ivanbegovina 3+ goals
38%
Otok 1+ goals
66%
Otok 2+ goals
29%
Otok 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Kamen Ivanbegovina (draw refunded)
78%
Otok (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kamen Ivanbegovina at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.28 · 102 matches

Otok away — creates 0.88, concedes 2.70 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kamen Ivanbegovina attack 1.72 + Otok defence 2.70 → ÷2 → 2.21

Otok attack 0.88 + Kamen Ivanbegovina defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Kamen Ivanbegovina scores more
63%
level
20%
Otok scores more
18%

Kamen Ivanbegovina at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Kamen Ivanbegovina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kamen Ivanbegovina vs Otok

Kamen Ivanbegovina and Otok drew 1-1 in Third NL - Jug on October 30, 2021.

The match was played at Igralište NK Kamen in Ivanbegovina.