Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Kamen Ivanbegovina vs Hrvatski vitez — Third NL - Jug 2019

Kamen Ivanbegovina
Kamen Ivanbegovina
FT
3 – 2
Hrvatski vitez
Hrvatski vitez
11/25/2023Third NL - JugThird NL - Jug · South - 15Igralište NK Kamen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Kamen Ivanbegovina52%
×Draw23%
Hrvatski vitez25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kamen Ivanbegovina
1.84
Hrvatski vitez
1.20

Kamen Ivanbegovina creates 53% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 93 away

creates per match

Kamen Ivanbegovina
1.72
Hrvatski vitez
1.11

allows per match

Kamen Ivanbegovina
1.28
Hrvatski vitez
1.97

finishing

Kamen Ivanbegovina+0.00on par
Hrvatski vitez+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kamen Ivanbegovina ↓

Hrvatski vitez →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Kamen Ivanbegovina or draw
75%
Kamen Ivanbegovina or Hrvatski vitez
77%
Draw or Hrvatski vitez
48%

Winning margin

Kamen Ivanbegovina wins by 2+
29%
Hrvatski vitez wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Kamen Ivanbegovina 1+ goals
84%
Kamen Ivanbegovina 2+ goals
55%
Kamen Ivanbegovina 3+ goals
28%
Hrvatski vitez 1+ goals
70%
Hrvatski vitez 2+ goals
34%
Hrvatski vitez 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Kamen Ivanbegovina (draw refunded)
68%
Hrvatski vitez (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kamen Ivanbegovina at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.28 · 102 matches

Hrvatski vitez away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.97 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kamen Ivanbegovina attack 1.72 + Hrvatski vitez defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.84

Hrvatski vitez attack 1.11 + Kamen Ivanbegovina defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Kamen Ivanbegovina scores more
52%
level
23%
Hrvatski vitez scores more
25%

Kamen Ivanbegovina at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Kamen Ivanbegovina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kamen Ivanbegovina vs Hrvatski vitez

Kamen Ivanbegovina beat Hrvatski vitez 3-2 in Third NL - Jug on November 25, 2023.

The match was played at Igralište NK Kamen in Ivanbegovina.