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Hrvatski vitez vs Kamen Ivanbegovina — Third NL - Jug 2019

Hrvatski vitez
Hrvatski vitez
FT
5 – 1
Kamen Ivanbegovina
Kamen Ivanbegovina
5/25/2024Third NL - JugThird NL - Jug · South - 30Gradski stadion Gordan Demo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Hrvatski vitez70%
×Draw18%
Kamen Ivanbegovina12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hrvatski vitez
2.35
Kamen Ivanbegovina
0.88

Hrvatski vitez creates 167% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 102 away

creates per match

Hrvatski vitez
1.99
Kamen Ivanbegovina
0.80

allows per match

Hrvatski vitez
0.95
Kamen Ivanbegovina
2.71

finishing

Hrvatski vitez+0.00on par
Kamen Ivanbegovina+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hrvatski vitez ↓

Kamen Ivanbegovina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Hrvatski vitez or draw
88%
Hrvatski vitez or Kamen Ivanbegovina
82%
Draw or Kamen Ivanbegovina
30%

Winning margin

Hrvatski vitez wins by 2+
47%
Kamen Ivanbegovina wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Hrvatski vitez 1+ goals
90%
Hrvatski vitez 2+ goals
68%
Hrvatski vitez 3+ goals
41%
Kamen Ivanbegovina 1+ goals
59%
Kamen Ivanbegovina 2+ goals
22%
Kamen Ivanbegovina 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Hrvatski vitez (draw refunded)
85%
Kamen Ivanbegovina (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hrvatski vitez at home — creates 1.99, concedes 0.95 · 93 matches

Kamen Ivanbegovina away — creates 0.80, concedes 2.71 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hrvatski vitez attack 1.99 + Kamen Ivanbegovina defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.35

Kamen Ivanbegovina attack 0.80 + Hrvatski vitez defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Hrvatski vitez scores more
70%
level
18%
Kamen Ivanbegovina scores more
12%

Hrvatski vitez at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Hrvatski vitez will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hrvatski vitez vs Kamen Ivanbegovina

Hrvatski vitez beat Kamen Ivanbegovina 5-1 in Third NL - Jug on May 25, 2024.

The match was played at Gradski stadion Gordan Demo in Posedarje.