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Kamen Ivanbegovina vs HNK Zadar — Third NL - Jug 2019

Kamen Ivanbegovina
Kamen Ivanbegovina
FT
0 – 2
HNK Zadar
HNK Zadar
5/24/2025Third NL - JugThird NL - Jug · South - 29Igralište NK Kamen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Kamen Ivanbegovina37%
×Draw25%
HNK Zadar38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kamen Ivanbegovina
1.41
HNK Zadar
1.43

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 102 home / 77 away

creates per match

Kamen Ivanbegovina
1.72
HNK Zadar
1.58

allows per match

Kamen Ivanbegovina
1.28
HNK Zadar
1.09

finishing

Kamen Ivanbegovina+0.00on par
HNK Zadar+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kamen Ivanbegovina ↓

HNK Zadar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Kamen Ivanbegovina or draw
62%
Kamen Ivanbegovina or HNK Zadar
75%
Draw or HNK Zadar
63%

Winning margin

Kamen Ivanbegovina wins by 2+
17%
HNK Zadar wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Kamen Ivanbegovina 1+ goals
76%
Kamen Ivanbegovina 2+ goals
41%
Kamen Ivanbegovina 3+ goals
17%
HNK Zadar 1+ goals
76%
HNK Zadar 2+ goals
42%
HNK Zadar 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Kamen Ivanbegovina (draw refunded)
49%
HNK Zadar (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kamen Ivanbegovina at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.28 · 102 matches

HNK Zadar away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.09 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kamen Ivanbegovina attack 1.72 + HNK Zadar defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.41

HNK Zadar attack 1.58 + Kamen Ivanbegovina defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Kamen Ivanbegovina scores more
37%
level
25%
HNK Zadar scores more
38%

HNK Zadar at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "HNK Zadar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kamen Ivanbegovina vs HNK Zadar

HNK Zadar beat Kamen Ivanbegovina 2-0 in Third NL - Jug on May 24, 2025.

The match was played at Igralište NK Kamen in Ivanbegovina.