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KAMAZ vs Zvezda Perm — Second League - Group 4 2020

KAMAZ
KAMAZ
FT
3 – 0
Zvezda Perm
Zvezda Perm
10/3/2020Second League - Group 4Second League - Group 4 · Group 4 - 9Stadion KAMAZ

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

KAMAZ64%
×Draw19%
Zvezda Perm17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KAMAZ
2.23
Zvezda Perm
1.05

KAMAZ creates 112% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 28 away

creates per match

KAMAZ
3.21
Zvezda Perm
1.46

allows per match

KAMAZ
0.64
Zvezda Perm
1.25

finishing

KAMAZ+0.00on par
Zvezda Perm+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KAMAZ ↓

Zvezda Perm →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

KAMAZ or draw
83%
KAMAZ or Zvezda Perm
81%
Draw or Zvezda Perm
36%

Winning margin

KAMAZ wins by 2+
41%
Zvezda Perm wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

KAMAZ 1+ goals
89%
KAMAZ 2+ goals
65%
KAMAZ 3+ goals
38%
Zvezda Perm 1+ goals
65%
Zvezda Perm 2+ goals
28%
Zvezda Perm 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

KAMAZ (draw refunded)
79%
Zvezda Perm (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KAMAZ at home — creates 3.21, concedes 0.64 · 14 matches

Zvezda Perm away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.25 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KAMAZ attack 3.21 + Zvezda Perm defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 2.23

Zvezda Perm attack 1.46 + KAMAZ defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

KAMAZ scores more
64%
level
19%
Zvezda Perm scores more
17%

KAMAZ at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "KAMAZ will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: KAMAZ vs Zvezda Perm

KAMAZ beat Zvezda Perm 3-0 in Second League - Group 4 on October 3, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion KAMAZ in Naberezhnye Chelny.