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KAMAZ vs Urozhay — First League 2018

KAMAZ
KAMAZ
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Urozhay
Urozhay
5/7/2022First LeagueFirst League · Round 36Stadion KAMAZ

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

KAMAZ47%
×Draw27%
Urozhay26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KAMAZ
1.38
Urozhay
0.95

KAMAZ creates 45% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 53 away

creates per match

KAMAZ
1.31
Urozhay
0.92

allows per match

KAMAZ
0.97
Urozhay
1.45

finishing

KAMAZ+0.00on par
Urozhay+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KAMAZ ↓

Urozhay →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

KAMAZ or draw
74%
KAMAZ or Urozhay
73%
Draw or Urozhay
53%

Winning margin

KAMAZ wins by 2+
22%
Urozhay wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

KAMAZ 1+ goals
75%
KAMAZ 2+ goals
40%
KAMAZ 3+ goals
16%
Urozhay 1+ goals
61%
Urozhay 2+ goals
25%
Urozhay 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

KAMAZ (draw refunded)
64%
Urozhay (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KAMAZ at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.97 · 87 matches

Urozhay away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.45 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KAMAZ attack 1.31 + Urozhay defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.38

Urozhay attack 0.92 + KAMAZ defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

KAMAZ scores more
47%
level
27%
Urozhay scores more
26%

KAMAZ at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "KAMAZ will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: KAMAZ 0–0 Urozhay

KAMAZ and Urozhay drew 0-0 in First League on May 7, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion KAMAZ in Naberezhnye Chelny.