KAMAZ 5–1 Ural: Result & Stats | First League

KAMAZ

FT

5 – 1

HT: 3 – 1

Ural

D. Karaev 90'

D. N. Motorin 60', 14'

R. Apekov 41'

M. Sultonov 22'

I. Ishkov 45'

10/6/2025

First League · Round 13KAMAZ Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

KAMAZ39%

×Draw28%

Ural32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KAMAZExpected goals in this matchUral

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.09

KAMAZ

1.23

Ural

1.09

KAMAZ creates 13% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 34 away

1.31

creates per match

1.21

0.97

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

KAMAZ

1.31

Ural

1.21

allows per match

KAMAZ

0.97

Ural

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

KAMAZ+0.00on par

Ural+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KAMAZ ↓

Ural →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

KAMAZ or draw

68%

KAMAZ or Ural

72%

Draw or Ural

61%

Winning margin

KAMAZ wins by 2+

17%

Ural wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

KAMAZ 1+ goals

71%

KAMAZ 2+ goals

35%

KAMAZ 3+ goals

13%

Ural 1+ goals

66%

Ural 2+ goals

30%

Ural 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

KAMAZ (draw refunded)

55%

Ural (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KAMAZ at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.97 · 87 matches

Ural away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.15 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KAMAZ attack 1.31 + Ural defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.23

Ural attack 1.21 + KAMAZ defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

KAMAZ scores more

39%

level

28%

Ural scores more

32%

KAMAZ at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "KAMAZ will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

20'

22'

28'

41'

45'

56'

56'

V. Karapuzov← R. Akbashev

56'

E. Mosin← Y. Zheleznov

60'

D. N. Motorin

64'

F. Sungatulin← V. Bondarev

64'

M. Voronov← I. Ishkov

68'

D. Shamkin← D. N. Motorin

68'

D. Karaev← R. Golybin

76'

S. Abdullahi← R. Apekov

76'

S. Abdullaev← M. Sultonov

76'

E. Markov← M. Sekulic

87'

S. Ratnikov← R. Zashchepkin

90'

D. Karaev

Statistics

KAMAZUral

Discipline

2Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0

Match Recap: KAMAZ vs Ural

KAMAZ beat Ural 5-1 in First League on October 6, 2025.

Goals: D. N. Motorin (14', 60'), M. Sultonov (22'), R. Apekov (41'), I. Ishkov (45'), D. Karaev (90').

The match was played at KAMAZ Stadium in Naberezhnye Chelny.

KAMAZ vs Ural — First League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Statistics

Match Recap: KAMAZ vs Ural