KAMAZ 4–1 Spartak Moscow 2: Result & Stats

KAMAZ

FT

4 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Spartak Moscow 2

10/23/2021

First League · Round 19Stadion KAMAZ

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

KAMAZ46%

×Draw26%

Spartak Moscow 228%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KAMAZExpected goals in this matchSpartak Moscow 2

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.07

KAMAZ

1.46

Spartak Moscow 2

1.07

KAMAZ creates 36% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 73 away

1.31

creates per match

1.18

0.97

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

KAMAZ

1.31

Spartak Moscow 2

1.18

allows per match

KAMAZ

0.97

Spartak Moscow 2

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

KAMAZ+0.00on par

Spartak Moscow 2+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KAMAZ ↓

Spartak Moscow 2 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

KAMAZ or draw

72%

KAMAZ or Spartak Moscow 2

74%

Draw or Spartak Moscow 2

54%

Winning margin

KAMAZ wins by 2+

23%

Spartak Moscow 2 wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

KAMAZ 1+ goals

77%

KAMAZ 2+ goals

43%

KAMAZ 3+ goals

18%

Spartak Moscow 2 1+ goals

66%

Spartak Moscow 2 2+ goals

29%

Spartak Moscow 2 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

KAMAZ (draw refunded)

62%

Spartak Moscow 2 (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KAMAZ at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.97 · 87 matches

Spartak Moscow 2 away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.60 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KAMAZ attack 1.31 + Spartak Moscow 2 defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.46

Spartak Moscow 2 attack 1.18 + KAMAZ defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

KAMAZ scores more

46%

level

26%

Spartak Moscow 2 scores more

28%

KAMAZ at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "KAMAZ will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff