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KAMAZ vs Spartak Kostroma — First League 2024

KAMAZ
KAMAZ
Preview
16:00
Spartak Kostroma
Spartak Kostroma
11/21/2026First LeagueFirst League · Round 18KAMAZ Stadium
40%
KAMAZ
model favours
40%26%34%

KAMAZ sit 16, Spartak Kostroma 4 in the table

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
51%
under 2.5 goals
54%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

KAMAZ40%
×Draw26%
Spartak Kostroma34%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KAMAZ
1.38
Spartak Kostroma
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 40 home / 17 away

creates per match

KAMAZ
1.35
Spartak Kostroma
1.53

allows per match

KAMAZ
1.02
Spartak Kostroma
1.41

finishing

KAMAZ+0.00on par
Spartak Kostroma+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KAMAZ ↓

Spartak Kostroma →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

KAMAZ or draw
66%
KAMAZ or Spartak Kostroma
74%
Draw or Spartak Kostroma
60%

Winning margin

KAMAZ wins by 2+
18%
Spartak Kostroma wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

KAMAZ 1+ goals
75%
KAMAZ 2+ goals
40%
KAMAZ 3+ goals
16%
Spartak Kostroma 1+ goals
72%
Spartak Kostroma 2+ goals
36%
Spartak Kostroma 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

KAMAZ (draw refunded)
53%
Spartak Kostroma (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KAMAZ at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.02 · 40 matches

Spartak Kostroma away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.41 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KAMAZ attack 1.35 + Spartak Kostroma defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.38

Spartak Kostroma attack 1.53 + KAMAZ defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

KAMAZ scores more
40%
level
26%
Spartak Kostroma scores more
34%

KAMAZ at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "KAMAZ will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
KAMAZ
LDLDD
Kostroma
WLLDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

KAMAZ vs Spartak Kostroma — Match Preview

KAMAZ face Spartak Kostroma on November 21, 2026 in this First League fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

KAMAZ host Spartak Kostroma at KAMAZ Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.