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KAMAZ vs Ska-khabarovsk — First League 2018

KAMAZ
KAMAZ
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Ska-khabarovsk
Ska-khabarovsk
T. Kalistratov 90'
D. Tsypchenko 54'
11/23/2025First LeagueFirst League · Round 20KAMAZ Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 87+ matches

KAMAZ45%
×Draw27%
Ska-khabarovsk28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KAMAZ
1.39
Ska-khabarovsk
1.02

KAMAZ creates 36% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 141 away

creates per match

KAMAZ
1.31
Ska-khabarovsk
1.06

allows per match

KAMAZ
0.97
Ska-khabarovsk
1.47

finishing

KAMAZ+0.00on par
Ska-khabarovsk+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KAMAZ ↓

Ska-khabarovsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

KAMAZ or draw
72%
KAMAZ or Ska-khabarovsk
73%
Draw or Ska-khabarovsk
55%

Winning margin

KAMAZ wins by 2+
22%
Ska-khabarovsk wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

KAMAZ 1+ goals
75%
KAMAZ 2+ goals
40%
KAMAZ 3+ goals
16%
Ska-khabarovsk 1+ goals
64%
Ska-khabarovsk 2+ goals
27%
Ska-khabarovsk 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

KAMAZ (draw refunded)
62%
Ska-khabarovsk (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KAMAZ at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.97 · 87 matches

Ska-khabarovsk away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.47 · 141 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KAMAZ attack 1.31 + Ska-khabarovsk defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.39

Ska-khabarovsk attack 1.06 + KAMAZ defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

KAMAZ scores more
45%
level
27%
Ska-khabarovsk scores more
28%

KAMAZ at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "KAMAZ will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'
David Khubaev
24'
Roman Zashchepkin
26'
Jordi Tur
46'
S. Bagiev← S. Glotov
46'
V. Bragin← J. A. Tur
54'
D. Tsypchenko
55'
D. Shamkin← V. Semenov
58'
Vladislav Bragin
59'
Renat Golybin
67'
Maksim Burko
71'
A. Solodukhin← R. Golybin
71'
A. Deryugin← R. Zashchepkin
84'
Sadyg Bagiev
85'
G. Gurban← E. Noskov
86'
M. Sultonov← D. Khubaev
87'
Konstantin Pliev
89'
J. Alcalde← D. Tsypchenko
90'
Konstantin Pliev
90'
Konstantin Pliev
90'
T. Kalistratov

Statistics

KAMAZSka-khabarovsk
Discipline
4Yellow Cards5
0Red Cards1

Match Recap: KAMAZ vs Ska-khabarovsk

KAMAZ and Ska-khabarovsk drew 1-1 in First League on November 23, 2025.

Goals: D. Tsypchenko (54'), T. Kalistratov (90').

The match was played at KAMAZ Stadium in Naberezhnye Chelny.