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KAMAZ vs Shinnik Yaroslavl — First League 2018

KAMAZ
KAMAZ
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Shinnik Yaroslavl
Shinnik Yaroslavl
9/20/2025First LeagueFirst League · Round 11KAMAZ Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 87+ matches

KAMAZ46%
×Draw27%
Shinnik Yaroslavl27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KAMAZ
1.39
Shinnik Yaroslavl
0.98

KAMAZ creates 42% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 122 away

creates per match

KAMAZ
1.31
Shinnik Yaroslavl
0.99

allows per match

KAMAZ
0.97
Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.47

finishing

KAMAZ+0.00on par
Shinnik Yaroslavl+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KAMAZ ↓

Shinnik Yaroslavl →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

KAMAZ or draw
73%
KAMAZ or Shinnik Yaroslavl
73%
Draw or Shinnik Yaroslavl
54%

Winning margin

KAMAZ wins by 2+
22%
Shinnik Yaroslavl wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

KAMAZ 1+ goals
75%
KAMAZ 2+ goals
40%
KAMAZ 3+ goals
16%
Shinnik Yaroslavl 1+ goals
62%
Shinnik Yaroslavl 2+ goals
26%
Shinnik Yaroslavl 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

KAMAZ (draw refunded)
64%
Shinnik Yaroslavl (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KAMAZ at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.97 · 87 matches

Shinnik Yaroslavl away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.47 · 122 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KAMAZ attack 1.31 + Shinnik Yaroslavl defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.39

Shinnik Yaroslavl attack 0.99 + KAMAZ defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

KAMAZ scores more
46%
level
27%
Shinnik Yaroslavl scores more
27%

KAMAZ at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "KAMAZ will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'
Ruslan Kul
60'
D. Shamkin← D. Karaev
64'
V. Nafikov← R. Kul
71'
R. Golybin← M. Sultonov
71'
S. Abdullaev← R. Apekov
73'
D. Mironov← D. Samoilov
81'
Daniil Kornyushin
85'
David Khubaev
86'
Artem Golubev
87'
Nikita Kotin
90'
A. Solodukhin← A. Deryugin
90'
R. Manuylov← G. Yudintsev

Statistics

KAMAZShinnik
Discipline
1Yellow Cards4
0Red Cards0

Match Recap: KAMAZ vs Shinnik Yaroslavl

KAMAZ and Shinnik Yaroslavl drew 0-0 in First League on September 20, 2025.

The match was played at KAMAZ Stadium in Naberezhnye Chelny.