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KAMAZ vs Rotor Volgograd — First League 2024

KAMAZ
KAMAZ
Preview
17:00
Rotor Volgograd
Rotor Volgograd
7/27/2026First LeagueFirst League · Round 3KAMAZ Stadium
Big match
38%
KAMAZ
model favours
38%29%33%

Rotor Volgograd have won 4 of the last 5 meetings

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
62%
under 2.5 goals
45%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

KAMAZ38%
×Draw29%
Rotor Volgograd33%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KAMAZ
1.16
Rotor Volgograd
1.06

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 40 home / 38 away

creates per match

KAMAZ
1.35
Rotor Volgograd
1.11

allows per match

KAMAZ
1.02
Rotor Volgograd
0.97

finishing

KAMAZ+0.00on par
Rotor Volgograd+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KAMAZ ↓

Rotor Volgograd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

KAMAZ or draw
67%
KAMAZ or Rotor Volgograd
71%
Draw or Rotor Volgograd
62%

Winning margin

KAMAZ wins by 2+
16%
Rotor Volgograd wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

KAMAZ 1+ goals
69%
KAMAZ 2+ goals
32%
KAMAZ 3+ goals
11%
Rotor Volgograd 1+ goals
65%
Rotor Volgograd 2+ goals
29%
Rotor Volgograd 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

KAMAZ (draw refunded)
54%
Rotor Volgograd (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KAMAZ at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.02 · 40 matches

Rotor Volgograd away — creates 1.11, concedes 0.97 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KAMAZ attack 1.35 + Rotor Volgograd defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.16

Rotor Volgograd attack 1.11 + KAMAZ defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

KAMAZ scores more
38%
level
29%
Rotor Volgograd scores more
33%

KAMAZ at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "KAMAZ will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
KAMAZ
LDLDD
Volgograd
LLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

KAMAZ vs Rotor Volgograd — Match Preview

KAMAZ face Rotor Volgograd on July 27, 2026 in this First League fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

KAMAZ host Rotor Volgograd at KAMAZ Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.