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KAMAZ vs Rodina Moskva — First League 2018

KAMAZ
KAMAZ
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Rodina Moskva
Rodina Moskva
10/19/2025First LeagueFirst League · Round 15KAMAZ Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

KAMAZ36%
×Draw28%
Rodina Moskva36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KAMAZ
1.14
Rodina Moskva
1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 87 home / 68 away

creates per match

KAMAZ
1.31
Rodina Moskva
1.32

allows per match

KAMAZ
0.97
Rodina Moskva
0.97

finishing

KAMAZ+0.00on par
Rodina Moskva+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KAMAZ ↓

Rodina Moskva →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

KAMAZ or draw
64%
KAMAZ or Rodina Moskva
72%
Draw or Rodina Moskva
64%

Winning margin

KAMAZ wins by 2+
15%
Rodina Moskva wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

KAMAZ 1+ goals
68%
KAMAZ 2+ goals
32%
KAMAZ 3+ goals
11%
Rodina Moskva 1+ goals
68%
Rodina Moskva 2+ goals
32%
Rodina Moskva 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

KAMAZ (draw refunded)
50%
Rodina Moskva (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KAMAZ at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.97 · 87 matches

Rodina Moskva away — creates 1.32, concedes 0.97 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KAMAZ attack 1.31 + Rodina Moskva defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.14

Rodina Moskva attack 1.32 + KAMAZ defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

KAMAZ scores more
36%
level
28%
Rodina Moskva scores more
36%

KAMAZ at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "KAMAZ will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: KAMAZ vs Rodina Moskva

Rodina Moskva beat KAMAZ 2-1 in First League on October 19, 2025.

The match was played at KAMAZ Stadium in Naberezhnye Chelny.