KAMAZ 0–4 Orenburg: Result & Stats | First League

KAMAZ

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Orenburg

A. Koryan 76', 26'

J. Fameyeh 52'

N. Prudnikov 24'

9/11/2021

First League · Round 10Stadion KAMAZ

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

KAMAZ32%

×Draw27%

Orenburg41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KAMAZExpected goals in this matchOrenburg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

1.33

KAMAZ

1.13

Orenburg

1.33

Orenburg creates 18% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 40 away

1.31

creates per match

1.70

0.97

allows per match

0.95

creates per match

KAMAZ

1.31

Orenburg

1.70

allows per match

KAMAZ

0.97

Orenburg

0.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

KAMAZ+0.00on par

Orenburg+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KAMAZ ↓

Orenburg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

KAMAZ or draw

59%

KAMAZ or Orenburg

73%

Draw or Orenburg

68%

Winning margin

KAMAZ wins by 2+

13%

Orenburg wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

KAMAZ 1+ goals

68%

KAMAZ 2+ goals

31%

KAMAZ 3+ goals

11%

Orenburg 1+ goals

74%

Orenburg 2+ goals

38%

Orenburg 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

KAMAZ (draw refunded)

43%

Orenburg (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KAMAZ at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.97 · 87 matches

Orenburg away — creates 1.70, concedes 0.95 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KAMAZ attack 1.31 + Orenburg defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.13

Orenburg attack 1.70 + KAMAZ defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

KAMAZ scores more

32%

level

27%

Orenburg scores more

41%

Orenburg at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Orenburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

24'

26'

30'

37'

46'

47'

52'

61'

C. Magomadov← S. Morozov

68'

Y. Kovalev← N. Prudnikov

74'

V. Ignatenko← E. Voronin

74'

Y. Kirillov← M. Beveev

76'

A. Koryan

79'

T. Musaev← A. Gagloev

80'

A. Diallo← J. Fameyeh

81'

V. Sychevoy← A. Koryan

81'

A. Mironov← S. Breev

84'

Aleksey Mironov

88'

D. Bidlovskiy← N. Titkov

90+3'

Andrey Malykh

90+3'

Andrey Malykh

KAMAZ5-4-1

Orenburg4-2-3-1

20

⚽

▼

Fameyeh

7

⚽

▼

Prudnikov

8

⚽2

▼

Koryan

38

▼

Titkov

19

Ektov

5

Ayupov

23

▼

15

12

3

90

77

90

22

▼

Beveev

23

▼

Abazov

2

▼

Morozov

3

Kulikov

37

▼

Voronin

27

Kalugin

6

Svezhov

11

▼

Gagloev

17

Yanushkov

Manager: V. Klontsak

46'▲R. Ayukin←▼A. Abazov

61'▲C. Magomadov←▼S. Morozov

74'▲V. Ignatenko←▼E. Voronin

74'▲Y. Kirillov←▼M. Beveev

79'▲T. Musaev←▼A. Gagloev

KAMAZ substitutes

7Ayukin95Magomadov15Ignatenko42Kirillov9Musaev1Mamin8Osmanov66Zubairov

Manager: M. Liczka

68'▲Y. Kovalev←▼N. Prudnikov

80'▲A. Diallo←▼J. Fameyeh

81'▲V. Sychevoy←▼A. Koryan

81'▲A. Mironov←▼S. Breev

88'▲D. Bidlovskiy←▼N. Titkov

Orenburg substitutes

17Kovalev91Diallo77Sychevoy83Mironov33Bidlovskiy6Kozlov9Shabolin11Stamatov58Oyewole60Poletaev84Vorobjev97Goshev

First League: KAMAZ 0–4 Orenburg

Orenburg beat KAMAZ 4-0 in First League on September 11, 2021.

Goals: N. Prudnikov (24'), A. Koryan (26', 76'), J. Fameyeh (52').

The match was played at Stadion KAMAZ in Naberezhnye Chelny.

KAMAZ vs Orenburg — First League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

First League: KAMAZ 0–4 Orenburg