KAMAZ 4–0 Lada Dimitrovgrad: Result & Stats

KAMAZ

FT

4 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Lada Dimitrovgrad

8/29/2020

Second League - Group 4 · Group 4 - 4Stadion KAMAZ

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

KAMAZ66%

×Draw19%

Lada Dimitrovgrad16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KAMAZExpected goals in this matchLada Dimitrovgrad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.35

1.07

KAMAZ

2.35

Lada Dimitrovgrad

1.07

KAMAZ creates 120% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 14 away

3.21

creates per match

1.50

0.64

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

KAMAZ

3.21

Lada Dimitrovgrad

1.50

allows per match

KAMAZ

0.64

Lada Dimitrovgrad

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

KAMAZ+0.00on par

Lada Dimitrovgrad+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KAMAZ ↓

Lada Dimitrovgrad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–18%

1–24%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

KAMAZ or draw

84%

KAMAZ or Lada Dimitrovgrad

81%

Draw or Lada Dimitrovgrad

34%

Winning margin

KAMAZ wins by 2+

43%

Lada Dimitrovgrad wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

KAMAZ 1+ goals

90%

KAMAZ 2+ goals

68%

KAMAZ 3+ goals

41%

Lada Dimitrovgrad 1+ goals

66%

Lada Dimitrovgrad 2+ goals

29%

Lada Dimitrovgrad 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

KAMAZ (draw refunded)

80%

Lada Dimitrovgrad (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KAMAZ at home — creates 3.21, concedes 0.64 · 14 matches

Lada Dimitrovgrad away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.50 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KAMAZ attack 3.21 + Lada Dimitrovgrad defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 2.35

Lada Dimitrovgrad attack 1.50 + KAMAZ defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

KAMAZ scores more

66%

level

19%

Lada Dimitrovgrad scores more

16%

KAMAZ at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "KAMAZ will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff