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KAMAZ vs Krylia Sovetov — Cup 2019

KAMAZ
KAMAZ
Pens
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Krylia Sovetov
Krylia Sovetovadvanced
11/27/2025CupCup · Quarter-finalsKAMAZ Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

KAMAZ46%
×Draw26%
Krylia Sovetov28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KAMAZ
1.46
Krylia Sovetov
1.08

KAMAZ creates 35% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 19 away

creates per match

KAMAZ
1.25
Krylia Sovetov
1.53

allows per match

KAMAZ
0.63
Krylia Sovetov
1.68

finishing

KAMAZ+0.00on par
Krylia Sovetov+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KAMAZ ↓

Krylia Sovetov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

KAMAZ or draw
72%
KAMAZ or Krylia Sovetov
74%
Draw or Krylia Sovetov
54%

Winning margin

KAMAZ wins by 2+
22%
Krylia Sovetov wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

KAMAZ 1+ goals
77%
KAMAZ 2+ goals
43%
KAMAZ 3+ goals
18%
Krylia Sovetov 1+ goals
66%
Krylia Sovetov 2+ goals
29%
Krylia Sovetov 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

KAMAZ (draw refunded)
62%
Krylia Sovetov (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KAMAZ at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.63 · 8 matches

Krylia Sovetov away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.68 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KAMAZ attack 1.25 + Krylia Sovetov defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.46

Krylia Sovetov attack 1.53 + KAMAZ defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

KAMAZ scores more
46%
level
26%
Krylia Sovetov scores more
28%

KAMAZ at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "KAMAZ will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: KAMAZ 1–1 Krylia Sovetov

KAMAZ and Krylia Sovetov drew 1-1 in Cup on November 27, 2025.

The match was played at KAMAZ Stadium in Naberezhnye Chelny.