KAMAZ 2–1 Dinamo Makhachkala: Result & Stats

KAMAZ

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Dinamo Makhachkala

3/18/2024

First League · Round 23Stadion KAMAZ

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

KAMAZ41%

×Draw32%

Dinamo Makhachkala28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KAMAZExpected goals in this matchDinamo Makhachkala

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

0.82

KAMAZ

1.06

Dinamo Makhachkala

0.82

KAMAZ creates 29% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 34 away

1.31

creates per match

0.68

0.97

allows per match

0.82

creates per match

KAMAZ

1.31

Dinamo Makhachkala

0.68

allows per match

KAMAZ

0.97

Dinamo Makhachkala

0.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

KAMAZ+0.00on par

Dinamo Makhachkala+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KAMAZ ↓

Dinamo Makhachkala →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–113%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

56%44%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

KAMAZ or draw

72%

KAMAZ or Dinamo Makhachkala

68%

Draw or Dinamo Makhachkala

59%

Winning margin

KAMAZ wins by 2+

16%

Dinamo Makhachkala wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

KAMAZ 1+ goals

65%

KAMAZ 2+ goals

29%

KAMAZ 3+ goals

9%

Dinamo Makhachkala 1+ goals

56%

Dinamo Makhachkala 2+ goals

20%

Dinamo Makhachkala 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

KAMAZ (draw refunded)

59%

Dinamo Makhachkala (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KAMAZ at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.97 · 87 matches

Dinamo Makhachkala away — creates 0.68, concedes 0.82 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KAMAZ attack 1.31 + Dinamo Makhachkala defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.06

Dinamo Makhachkala attack 0.68 + KAMAZ defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

KAMAZ scores more

41%

level

32%

Dinamo Makhachkala scores more

28%

KAMAZ at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "KAMAZ will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff