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KAMAZ vs Chayka — First League 2018

KAMAZ
KAMAZ
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Chayka
Chayka
3/8/2025First LeagueFirst League · Round 23Stadion KAMAZ

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

KAMAZ48%
×Draw27%
Chayka25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KAMAZ
1.44
Chayka
0.95

KAMAZ creates 52% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 68 away

creates per match

KAMAZ
1.31
Chayka
0.94

allows per match

KAMAZ
0.97
Chayka
1.57

finishing

KAMAZ+0.00on par
Chayka+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KAMAZ ↓

Chayka →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

KAMAZ or draw
75%
KAMAZ or Chayka
73%
Draw or Chayka
52%

Winning margin

KAMAZ wins by 2+
24%
Chayka wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

KAMAZ 1+ goals
76%
KAMAZ 2+ goals
42%
KAMAZ 3+ goals
18%
Chayka 1+ goals
61%
Chayka 2+ goals
25%
Chayka 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

KAMAZ (draw refunded)
66%
Chayka (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KAMAZ at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.97 · 87 matches

Chayka away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.57 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KAMAZ attack 1.31 + Chayka defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.44

Chayka attack 0.94 + KAMAZ defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

KAMAZ scores more
48%
level
27%
Chayka scores more
25%

KAMAZ at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "KAMAZ will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: KAMAZ vs Chayka

KAMAZ beat Chayka 3-1 in First League on March 8, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion KAMAZ in Naberezhnye Chelny.