KAMAZ 1–1 Alaniya Vladikavkaz: Result & Stats

KAMAZ

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Alaniya Vladikavkaz

A. Ukomskiy 51'

I. Mashukov 83'

11/12/2023

First League · Round 18Stadion KAMAZ

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

KAMAZ42%

×Draw27%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KAMAZExpected goals in this matchAlaniya Vladikavkaz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.10

KAMAZ

1.32

Alaniya Vladikavkaz

1.10

KAMAZ creates 20% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 70 away

1.31

creates per match

1.24

0.97

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

KAMAZ

1.31

Alaniya Vladikavkaz

1.24

allows per match

KAMAZ

0.97

Alaniya Vladikavkaz

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

KAMAZ+0.00on par

Alaniya Vladikavkaz+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KAMAZ ↓

Alaniya Vladikavkaz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

KAMAZ or draw

69%

KAMAZ or Alaniya Vladikavkaz

73%

Draw or Alaniya Vladikavkaz

58%

Winning margin

KAMAZ wins by 2+

19%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

KAMAZ 1+ goals

73%

KAMAZ 2+ goals

38%

KAMAZ 3+ goals

15%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz 1+ goals

67%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz 2+ goals

30%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

KAMAZ (draw refunded)

57%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KAMAZ at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.97 · 87 matches

Alaniya Vladikavkaz away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.33 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KAMAZ attack 1.31 + Alaniya Vladikavkaz defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.32

Alaniya Vladikavkaz attack 1.24 + KAMAZ defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

KAMAZ scores more

42%

level

27%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz scores more

31%

KAMAZ at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "KAMAZ will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

30'

45+1'

45'

46'

A. Butaev← V. Tsarukyan

51'

A. Ukomskiy

53'

Ilnur Badrtdinov

59'

A. Chochiev← A. Khabalov

59'

A. Zaseev← R. Daurov

59'

V. Krotov← B. Khadartsev

79'

H. Norchaev← D. Shavlokhov

80'

Boris Fartuna

81'

G. Borisenko← I. Badrtdinov

83'

I. Mashukov

86'

R. Ayukin← A. Abramov

86'

Y. Kirillov← R. Kul

90'

D. Rodin← P. Gorelov

90'

R. Zashchepkin← B. Fartuna

Statistics

KAMAZAlaniya

Overview

7Corners3

Discipline

3Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards1

Match Recap: KAMAZ vs Alaniya Vladikavkaz

KAMAZ and Alaniya Vladikavkaz drew 1-1 in First League on November 12, 2023.

Goals: A. Ukomskiy (51'), I. Mashukov (83').

The match was played at Stadion KAMAZ in Naberezhnye Chelny.

KAMAZ vs Alaniya Vladikavkaz — First League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Statistics

Match Recap: KAMAZ vs Alaniya Vladikavkaz