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Kamatamare Sanuki vs Yokohama FC — J2 League 2018

Kamatamare Sanuki
Kamatamare Sanuki
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Yokohama FC
Yokohama FC
D. Watanabe 17'
8/16/2017J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 28Pikara Stadium (Marugame)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Kamatamare Sanuki23%
×Draw27%
Yokohama FC50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kamatamare Sanuki
0.88
Yokohama FC
1.43

Yokohama FC creates 63% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 89 away

creates per match

Kamatamare Sanuki
0.76
Yokohama FC
1.38

allows per match

Kamatamare Sanuki
1.48
Yokohama FC
1.00

finishing

Kamatamare Sanuki+0.00on par
Yokohama FC+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kamatamare Sanuki ↓

Yokohama FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–114%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Kamatamare Sanuki or draw
50%
Kamatamare Sanuki or Yokohama FC
73%
Draw or Yokohama FC
77%

Winning margin

Kamatamare Sanuki wins by 2+
8%
Yokohama FC wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Kamatamare Sanuki 1+ goals
59%
Kamatamare Sanuki 2+ goals
22%
Kamatamare Sanuki 3+ goals
6%
Yokohama FC 1+ goals
76%
Yokohama FC 2+ goals
42%
Yokohama FC 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Kamatamare Sanuki (draw refunded)
32%
Yokohama FC (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kamatamare Sanuki at home — creates 0.76, concedes 1.48 · 25 matches

Yokohama FC away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.00 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kamatamare Sanuki attack 0.76 + Yokohama FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.88

Yokohama FC attack 1.38 + Kamatamare Sanuki defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Kamatamare Sanuki scores more
23%
level
27%
Yokohama FC scores more
50%

Yokohama FC at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Yokohama FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'
D. Watanabe

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kamatamare Sanuki vs Yokohama FC

Kamatamare Sanuki beat Yokohama FC 1-0 in J2 League on August 16, 2017.

Goals: D. Watanabe (17').

The match was played at Pikara Stadium (Marugame).