Kamatamare Sanuki 1–2 Kitakyushu: Result & Stats

Kamatamare Sanuki

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Kitakyushu

Y. Morikawa 83'

Koh Seung-Jin 26'

K. Kudo 4'

11/10/2024

League #100 · Round 36Pikara Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Kamatamare Sanuki18%

×Draw23%

Kitakyushu59%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kamatamare SanukiExpected goals in this matchKitakyushu

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.90

1.82

Kamatamare Sanuki

0.90

Kitakyushu

1.82

Kitakyushu creates 102% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 3 away

1.13

creates per match

2.33

1.31

allows per match

0.67

creates per match

Kamatamare Sanuki

1.13

Kitakyushu

2.33

allows per match

Kamatamare Sanuki

1.31

Kitakyushu

0.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kamatamare Sanuki+0.00on par

Kitakyushu+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kamatamare Sanuki ↓

Kitakyushu →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–112%

0–211%

0–37%

0–43%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–24%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Kamatamare Sanuki or draw

41%

Kamatamare Sanuki or Kitakyushu

77%

Draw or Kitakyushu

82%

Winning margin

Kamatamare Sanuki wins by 2+

6%

Kitakyushu wins by 2+

34%

Team goals

Kamatamare Sanuki 1+ goals

59%

Kamatamare Sanuki 2+ goals

23%

Kamatamare Sanuki 3+ goals

6%

Kitakyushu 1+ goals

84%

Kitakyushu 2+ goals

54%

Kitakyushu 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Kamatamare Sanuki (draw refunded)

24%

Kitakyushu (draw refunded)

76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kamatamare Sanuki at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.31 · 32 matches

Kitakyushu away — creates 2.33, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kamatamare Sanuki attack 1.13 + Kitakyushu defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.90

Kitakyushu attack 2.33 + Kamatamare Sanuki defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Kamatamare Sanuki scores more

18%

level

23%

Kitakyushu scores more

59%

Kitakyushu at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Kitakyushu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

G. Yoshida

4'

K. Kudo↳ R. Nagai

26'

Koh Seung-Jin↳ S. Takayoshi

40'

K. Fujiwara

46'

T. Shimokawa← Y. Okuda

46'

S. Kawanishi← S. Niwa

55'

H. Izawa

62'

T. Ushinohama← K. Fujiwara

66'

Y. Morikawa← S. Iwagishi

71'

M. Uchida

76'

Y. Ono← Y. Mori

77'

S. Watanabe← Koh Seung-Jin

77'

K. Kiyama← H. Izawa

79'

K. Kiyama

83'

Y. Morikawa↳ T. Maekawa

88'

T. Ushinohama

90+4'

S. Watanabe

90+3'

K. Sakamoto← R. Okano

Kamatamare

Kitakyushu

1

Ito

33

Inui

13

⚽

Kudo

50

Sugiyama

22

Yamawaki

14

▼

Izawa

6

▼

Fujiwara

34

A

Takayoshi

17

▼

Okano

10

A

Nagai

29

⚽

▼

Seung-Jin

1

Imamura

3

Munechika

16

▼

Okuda

66

Uchida

8

▼

Mori

13

A

15

6

11

30

▼

Niwa

23

▼

Iwagishi

Manager: A. Yoneyama

46'▲T. Shimokawa←▼Y. Okuda

46'▲S. Kawanishi←▼S. Niwa

66'▲Y. Morikawa←▼S. Iwagishi

76'▲Y. Ono←▼Y. Mori

Kamatamare Sanuki substitutes

20Shimokawa10Kawanishi60Morikawa22Ono47Nishino32Matsubara24Fukaminato

Manager: K. Masumoto

62'▲T. Ushinohama←▼K. Fujiwara

77'▲S. Watanabe←▼Koh Seung-Jin

77'▲K. Kiyama←▼H. Izawa

90+3'▲K. Sakamoto←▼R. Okano

Kitakyushu substitutes

21Ushinohama18Watanabe11Kiyama23Sakamoto20Yada31Otani8Wakaya