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Kalush vs Volyn Lutsk II — Druha Liga - Group A 2019

Kalush
Kalush
CANC
00:00
Volyn Lutsk II
Volyn Lutsk II
4/9/2021Druha Liga - Group ADruha Liga - Group A · Group A - 16

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Kalush55%
×Draw25%
Volyn Lutsk II20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kalush
1.61
Volyn Lutsk II
0.86

Kalush creates 87% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 12 away

creates per match

Kalush
1.40
Volyn Lutsk II
0.42

allows per match

Kalush
1.30
Volyn Lutsk II
1.83

finishing

Kalush+0.00on par
Volyn Lutsk II+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kalush ↓

Volyn Lutsk II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Kalush or draw
80%
Kalush or Volyn Lutsk II
75%
Draw or Volyn Lutsk II
45%

Winning margin

Kalush wins by 2+
29%
Volyn Lutsk II wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Kalush 1+ goals
80%
Kalush 2+ goals
48%
Kalush 3+ goals
22%
Volyn Lutsk II 1+ goals
58%
Volyn Lutsk II 2+ goals
21%
Volyn Lutsk II 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Kalush (draw refunded)
73%
Volyn Lutsk II (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kalush at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.30 · 10 matches

Volyn Lutsk II away — creates 0.42, concedes 1.83 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kalush attack 1.40 + Volyn Lutsk II defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.61

Volyn Lutsk II attack 0.42 + Kalush defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Kalush scores more
55%
level
25%
Volyn Lutsk II scores more
20%

Kalush at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Kalush will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kalush face Volyn Lutsk II (Druha Liga - Group A)

Druha Liga - Group A returns with Kalush hosting Volyn Lutsk II. Match starts April 9, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.