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Kalush vs Obolon'-Brovar II — Druha Liga - Group A 2019

Kalush
Kalush
CANC
00:00
Obolon'-Brovar II
Obolon'-Brovar II
9/26/2020Druha Liga - Group ADruha Liga - Group A · Group A - 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Kalush49%
×Draw24%
Obolon'-Brovar II28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kalush
1.73
Obolon'-Brovar II
1.25

Kalush creates 38% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 22 away

creates per match

Kalush
1.64
Obolon'-Brovar II
1.05

allows per match

Kalush
1.45
Obolon'-Brovar II
1.82

finishing

Kalush+0.00on par
Obolon'-Brovar II+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kalush ↓

Obolon'-Brovar II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Kalush or draw
72%
Kalush or Obolon'-Brovar II
76%
Draw or Obolon'-Brovar II
51%

Winning margin

Kalush wins by 2+
26%
Obolon'-Brovar II wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Kalush 1+ goals
82%
Kalush 2+ goals
52%
Kalush 3+ goals
25%
Obolon'-Brovar II 1+ goals
71%
Obolon'-Brovar II 2+ goals
36%
Obolon'-Brovar II 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Kalush (draw refunded)
64%
Obolon'-Brovar II (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kalush at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.45 · 11 matches

Obolon'-Brovar II away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.82 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kalush attack 1.64 + Obolon'-Brovar II defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.73

Obolon'-Brovar II attack 1.05 + Kalush defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Kalush scores more
49%
level
24%
Obolon'-Brovar II scores more
28%

Kalush at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Kalush will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kalush vs Obolon'-Brovar II — Match Preview

Kalush face Obolon'-Brovar II on September 26, 2020 in this Druha Liga - Group A fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.