Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Kaluga vs Znamya Noginsk — Second League - Group 3 2020

Kaluga
Kaluga
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Znamya Noginsk
Znamya Noginsk
5/25/2021Second League - Group 3Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 26Arena Annenki

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Kaluga59%
×Draw22%
Znamya Noginsk20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kaluga
1.96
Znamya Noginsk
1.04

Kaluga creates 88% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 55 away

creates per match

Kaluga
2.14
Znamya Noginsk
1.13

allows per match

Kaluga
0.95
Znamya Noginsk
1.78

finishing

Kaluga+0.00on par
Znamya Noginsk+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kaluga ↓

Znamya Noginsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Kaluga or draw
80%
Kaluga or Znamya Noginsk
78%
Draw or Znamya Noginsk
41%

Winning margin

Kaluga wins by 2+
35%
Znamya Noginsk wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Kaluga 1+ goals
86%
Kaluga 2+ goals
58%
Kaluga 3+ goals
31%
Znamya Noginsk 1+ goals
65%
Znamya Noginsk 2+ goals
28%
Znamya Noginsk 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Kaluga (draw refunded)
75%
Znamya Noginsk (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kaluga at home — creates 2.14, concedes 0.95 · 56 matches

Znamya Noginsk away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.78 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kaluga attack 2.14 + Znamya Noginsk defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.96

Znamya Noginsk attack 1.13 + Kaluga defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Kaluga scores more
59%
level
22%
Znamya Noginsk scores more
20%

Kaluga at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Kaluga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 3: Kaluga 3–2 Znamya Noginsk

Kaluga beat Znamya Noginsk 3-2 in Second League - Group 3 on May 25, 2021.

The match was played at Arena Annenki in Kaluga.