Kaluga 5–0 Peresvet Podolsk: Result & Stats

Kaluga

FT

5 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Peresvet Podolsk

10/22/2023

Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 14Stadion Sputnik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Kaluga65%

×Draw19%

Peresvet Podolsk17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KalugaExpected goals in this matchPeresvet Podolsk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.33

1.09

Kaluga

2.33

Peresvet Podolsk

1.09

Kaluga creates 114% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 42 away

2.14

creates per match

1.24

0.95

allows per match

2.52

creates per match

Kaluga

2.14

Peresvet Podolsk

1.24

allows per match

Kaluga

0.95

Peresvet Podolsk

2.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kaluga+0.00on par

Peresvet Podolsk+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kaluga ↓

Peresvet Podolsk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Kaluga or draw

83%

Kaluga or Peresvet Podolsk

81%

Draw or Peresvet Podolsk

35%

Winning margin

Kaluga wins by 2+

42%

Peresvet Podolsk wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Kaluga 1+ goals

90%

Kaluga 2+ goals

67%

Kaluga 3+ goals

41%

Peresvet Podolsk 1+ goals

66%

Peresvet Podolsk 2+ goals

30%

Peresvet Podolsk 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Kaluga (draw refunded)

80%

Peresvet Podolsk (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kaluga at home — creates 2.14, concedes 0.95 · 56 matches

Peresvet Podolsk away — creates 1.24, concedes 2.52 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kaluga attack 2.14 + Peresvet Podolsk defence 2.52 → ÷2 → 2.33

Peresvet Podolsk attack 1.24 + Kaluga defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Kaluga scores more

65%

level

19%

Peresvet Podolsk scores more

17%

Kaluga at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Kaluga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff