Kaluga vs Novosibirsk — Second League A - Fall Season Gold 2023
Novosibirsk score first in only 30% of matches
brightest fact of this match
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 18+ matches
Kaluga38%
Novosibirsk35%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 18 home / 28 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under52
- Over48
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes53
- No47
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Kaluga ↓
Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Kaluga at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.56 · 18 matches
Novosibirsk away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.61 · 28 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Kaluga attack 1.06 + Novosibirsk defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.33
Novosibirsk attack 0.96 + Kaluga defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.26
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 38%?"
Kaluga at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 38% does not mean "Kaluga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Insights
- Novosibirsk have scored in 7 games running
- Novosibirsk have won 4 of the last 5 meetings
- 70% of Novosibirsk’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
Based on historical data — not a prediction.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
If points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Kaluga host Novosibirsk on Sunday, 26 July 2026 at 15:00. The match is part of the Second League A - Fall Season Gold 2023/2024 season.
Kaluga vs Novosibirsk — Match Preview
Kaluga face Novosibirsk on July 26, 2026 in this Second League A - Fall Season Gold fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.
Kaluga host Novosibirsk at Orbita stadium.
Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.