Kaluga 4–0 Metallurg Vidnoye: Result & Stats

Kaluga

FT

4 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Metallurg Vidnoye

5/21/2021

Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 25Arena Annenki

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Kaluga73%

×Draw16%

Metallurg Vidnoye11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KalugaExpected goals in this matchMetallurg Vidnoye

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.50

0.86

Kaluga

2.50

Metallurg Vidnoye

0.86

Kaluga creates 191% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 30 away

2.14

creates per match

0.77

0.95

allows per match

2.87

creates per match

Kaluga

2.14

Metallurg Vidnoye

0.77

allows per match

Kaluga

0.95

Metallurg Vidnoye

2.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kaluga+0.00on par

Metallurg Vidnoye+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kaluga ↓

Metallurg Vidnoye →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Kaluga or draw

89%

Kaluga or Metallurg Vidnoye

84%

Draw or Metallurg Vidnoye

27%

Winning margin

Kaluga wins by 2+

50%

Metallurg Vidnoye wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Kaluga 1+ goals

92%

Kaluga 2+ goals

71%

Kaluga 3+ goals

45%

Metallurg Vidnoye 1+ goals

58%

Metallurg Vidnoye 2+ goals

21%

Metallurg Vidnoye 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Kaluga (draw refunded)

87%

Metallurg Vidnoye (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kaluga at home — creates 2.14, concedes 0.95 · 56 matches

Metallurg Vidnoye away — creates 0.77, concedes 2.87 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kaluga attack 2.14 + Metallurg Vidnoye defence 2.87 → ÷2 → 2.50

Metallurg Vidnoye attack 0.77 + Kaluga defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Kaluga scores more

73%

level

16%

Metallurg Vidnoye scores more

11%

Kaluga at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Kaluga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff