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Kaluga vs Khimki II — Second League - Group 3 2020

Kaluga
Kaluga
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Khimki II
Khimki II
8/6/2022Second League - Group 3Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 4Stadion Sputnik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Kaluga56%
×Draw22%
Khimki II22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kaluga
1.98
Khimki II
1.16

Kaluga creates 71% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 74 away

creates per match

Kaluga
2.14
Khimki II
1.36

allows per match

Kaluga
0.95
Khimki II
1.82

finishing

Kaluga+0.00on par
Khimki II+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kaluga ↓

Khimki II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Kaluga or draw
78%
Kaluga or Khimki II
78%
Draw or Khimki II
44%

Winning margin

Kaluga wins by 2+
33%
Khimki II wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Kaluga 1+ goals
86%
Kaluga 2+ goals
59%
Kaluga 3+ goals
31%
Khimki II 1+ goals
69%
Khimki II 2+ goals
32%
Khimki II 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Kaluga (draw refunded)
72%
Khimki II (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kaluga at home — creates 2.14, concedes 0.95 · 56 matches

Khimki II away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.82 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kaluga attack 2.14 + Khimki II defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.98

Khimki II attack 1.36 + Kaluga defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Kaluga scores more
56%
level
22%
Khimki II scores more
22%

Kaluga at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Kaluga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kaluga vs Khimki II

Kaluga beat Khimki II 2-1 in Second League - Group 3 on August 6, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Sputnik in Kaluga.