Kaluga 1–0 Balashikha: Result & Stats

Kaluga

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Balashikha

10/8/2022

Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 15Stadion Sputnik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Kaluga71%

×Draw18%

Balashikha11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KalugaExpected goals in this matchBalashikha

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.19

0.71

Kaluga

2.19

Balashikha

0.71

Kaluga creates 208% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 17 away

2.14

creates per match

0.47

0.95

allows per match

2.24

creates per match

Kaluga

2.14

Balashikha

0.47

allows per match

Kaluga

0.95

Balashikha

2.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kaluga+0.00on par

Balashikha+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kaluga ↓

Balashikha →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–19%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–17%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Kaluga or draw

89%

Kaluga or Balashikha

82%

Draw or Balashikha

29%

Winning margin

Kaluga wins by 2+

47%

Balashikha wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Kaluga 1+ goals

89%

Kaluga 2+ goals

64%

Kaluga 3+ goals

37%

Balashikha 1+ goals

51%

Balashikha 2+ goals

16%

Balashikha 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Kaluga (draw refunded)

87%

Balashikha (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kaluga at home — creates 2.14, concedes 0.95 · 56 matches

Balashikha away — creates 0.47, concedes 2.24 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kaluga attack 2.14 + Balashikha defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 2.19

Balashikha attack 0.47 + Kaluga defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Kaluga scores more

71%

level

18%

Balashikha scores more

11%

Kaluga at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Kaluga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff