Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Kaluga vs Amkal — Cup 2019

Kaluga
Kaluga
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Amkal
Amkal
8/19/2025CupCup · Regions Path - 2nd RoundStadion Sputnik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Kaluga19%
×Draw30%
Amkal51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kaluga
0.63
Amkal
1.25

Amkal creates 98% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

Kaluga
1.00
Amkal
1.50

allows per match

Kaluga
1.00
Amkal
0.25

finishing

Kaluga+0.00on par
Amkal+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kaluga ↓

Amkal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–119%
0–212%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–03%
2–14%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Kaluga or draw
49%
Kaluga or Amkal
70%
Draw or Amkal
81%

Winning margin

Kaluga wins by 2+
5%
Amkal wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Kaluga 1+ goals
47%
Kaluga 2+ goals
13%
Kaluga 3+ goals
3%
Amkal 1+ goals
71%
Amkal 2+ goals
36%
Amkal 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Kaluga (draw refunded)
27%
Amkal (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kaluga at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Amkal away — creates 1.50, concedes 0.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kaluga attack 1.00 + Amkal defence 0.25 → ÷2 → 0.63

Amkal attack 1.50 + Kaluga defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Kaluga scores more
19%
level
30%
Amkal scores more
51%

Amkal at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Amkal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kaluga vs Amkal

Amkal beat Kaluga 1-0 in Cup on August 19, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Sputnik.