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Kalsdorf vs TuS Heiligenkreuz — Landesliga - Steiermark 2019

Kalsdorf
Kalsdorf
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
TuS Heiligenkreuz
TuS Heiligenkreuz
3/28/2025Landesliga - SteiermarkLandesliga - Steiermark · Steiermark - 19Sportzentrum Kalsdorf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Kalsdorf55%
×Draw20%
TuS Heiligenkreuz25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kalsdorf
2.25
TuS Heiligenkreuz
1.46

Kalsdorf creates 54% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 72 away

creates per match

Kalsdorf
2.40
TuS Heiligenkreuz
1.49

allows per match

Kalsdorf
1.43
TuS Heiligenkreuz
2.10

finishing

Kalsdorf+0.00on par
TuS Heiligenkreuz+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kalsdorf ↓

TuS Heiligenkreuz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Kalsdorf or draw
75%
Kalsdorf or TuS Heiligenkreuz
80%
Draw or TuS Heiligenkreuz
45%

Winning margin

Kalsdorf wins by 2+
34%
TuS Heiligenkreuz wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Kalsdorf 1+ goals
89%
Kalsdorf 2+ goals
65%
Kalsdorf 3+ goals
39%
TuS Heiligenkreuz 1+ goals
77%
TuS Heiligenkreuz 2+ goals
43%
TuS Heiligenkreuz 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Kalsdorf (draw refunded)
69%
TuS Heiligenkreuz (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kalsdorf at home — creates 2.40, concedes 1.43 · 30 matches

TuS Heiligenkreuz away — creates 1.49, concedes 2.10 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kalsdorf attack 2.40 + TuS Heiligenkreuz defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 2.25

TuS Heiligenkreuz attack 1.49 + Kalsdorf defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Kalsdorf scores more
55%
level
20%
TuS Heiligenkreuz scores more
25%

Kalsdorf at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Kalsdorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kalsdorf vs TuS Heiligenkreuz

Kalsdorf beat TuS Heiligenkreuz 2-1 in Landesliga - Steiermark on March 28, 2025.

The match was played at Sportzentrum Kalsdorf in Kalsdorf bei Graz.