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Kalsdorf vs Lafnitz II — Landesliga - Steiermark 2019

Kalsdorf
Kalsdorf
FT
2 – 1
Lafnitz II
Lafnitz II
5/10/2024Landesliga - SteiermarkLandesliga - Steiermark · Steiermark - 26Sportzentrum Kalsdorf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Kalsdorf48%
×Draw21%
Lafnitz II31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kalsdorf
2.10
Lafnitz II
1.64

Kalsdorf creates 28% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 75 away

creates per match

Kalsdorf
2.40
Lafnitz II
1.84

allows per match

Kalsdorf
1.43
Lafnitz II
1.80

finishing

Kalsdorf+0.00on par
Lafnitz II+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kalsdorf ↓

Lafnitz II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Kalsdorf or draw
69%
Kalsdorf or Lafnitz II
79%
Draw or Lafnitz II
52%

Winning margin

Kalsdorf wins by 2+
28%
Lafnitz II wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Kalsdorf 1+ goals
88%
Kalsdorf 2+ goals
62%
Kalsdorf 3+ goals
35%
Lafnitz II 1+ goals
81%
Lafnitz II 2+ goals
49%
Lafnitz II 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Kalsdorf (draw refunded)
61%
Lafnitz II (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kalsdorf at home — creates 2.40, concedes 1.43 · 30 matches

Lafnitz II away — creates 1.84, concedes 1.80 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kalsdorf attack 2.40 + Lafnitz II defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 2.10

Lafnitz II attack 1.84 + Kalsdorf defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Kalsdorf scores more
48%
level
21%
Lafnitz II scores more
31%

Kalsdorf at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Kalsdorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Steiermark: Kalsdorf 2–1 Lafnitz II

Kalsdorf beat Lafnitz II 2-1 in Landesliga - Steiermark on May 10, 2024.

The match was played at Sportzentrum Kalsdorf in Kalsdorf bei Graz.