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Kalsdorf vs Kindberg-Mürzhofen — Landesliga - Steiermark 2019

Kalsdorf
Kalsdorf
FT
5 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Kindberg-Mürzhofen
Kindberg-Mürzhofen
5/23/2025Landesliga - SteiermarkLandesliga - Steiermark · Steiermark - 28Sportzentrum Kalsdorf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Kalsdorf59%
×Draw18%
Kindberg-Mürzhofen23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kalsdorf
2.60
Kindberg-Mürzhofen
1.58

Kalsdorf creates 65% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 15 away

creates per match

Kalsdorf
2.40
Kindberg-Mürzhofen
1.73

allows per match

Kalsdorf
1.43
Kindberg-Mürzhofen
2.80

finishing

Kalsdorf+0.00on par
Kindberg-Mürzhofen+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kalsdorf ↓

Kindberg-Mürzhofen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Kalsdorf or draw
77%
Kalsdorf or Kindberg-Mürzhofen
82%
Draw or Kindberg-Mürzhofen
41%

Winning margin

Kalsdorf wins by 2+
39%
Kindberg-Mürzhofen wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Kalsdorf 1+ goals
92%
Kalsdorf 2+ goals
73%
Kalsdorf 3+ goals
47%
Kindberg-Mürzhofen 1+ goals
79%
Kindberg-Mürzhofen 2+ goals
47%
Kindberg-Mürzhofen 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Kalsdorf (draw refunded)
72%
Kindberg-Mürzhofen (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kalsdorf at home — creates 2.40, concedes 1.43 · 30 matches

Kindberg-Mürzhofen away — creates 1.73, concedes 2.80 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kalsdorf attack 2.40 + Kindberg-Mürzhofen defence 2.80 → ÷2 → 2.60

Kindberg-Mürzhofen attack 1.73 + Kalsdorf defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Kalsdorf scores more
59%
level
18%
Kindberg-Mürzhofen scores more
23%

Kalsdorf at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Kalsdorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Steiermark: Kalsdorf 5–1 Kindberg-Mürzhofen

Kalsdorf beat Kindberg-Mürzhofen 5-1 in Landesliga - Steiermark on May 23, 2025.

The match was played at Sportzentrum Kalsdorf in Kalsdorf bei Graz.