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Kalsdorf vs Frauental — Landesliga - Steiermark 2019

Kalsdorf
Kalsdorf
FT
4 – 0
Frauental
Frauental
4/19/2024Landesliga - SteiermarkLandesliga - Steiermark · Steiermark - 22Sportzentrum Kalsdorf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Kalsdorf51%
×Draw22%
Frauental27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kalsdorf
2.02
Frauental
1.42

Kalsdorf creates 42% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 60 away

creates per match

Kalsdorf
2.40
Frauental
1.40

allows per match

Kalsdorf
1.43
Frauental
1.65

finishing

Kalsdorf+0.00on par
Frauental+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kalsdorf ↓

Frauental →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Kalsdorf or draw
73%
Kalsdorf or Frauental
78%
Draw or Frauental
49%

Winning margin

Kalsdorf wins by 2+
30%
Frauental wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Kalsdorf 1+ goals
87%
Kalsdorf 2+ goals
60%
Kalsdorf 3+ goals
33%
Frauental 1+ goals
76%
Frauental 2+ goals
41%
Frauental 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Kalsdorf (draw refunded)
65%
Frauental (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kalsdorf at home — creates 2.40, concedes 1.43 · 30 matches

Frauental away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.65 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kalsdorf attack 2.40 + Frauental defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 2.02

Frauental attack 1.40 + Kalsdorf defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Kalsdorf scores more
51%
level
22%
Frauental scores more
27%

Kalsdorf at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Kalsdorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Steiermark: Kalsdorf 4–0 Frauental

Kalsdorf beat Frauental 4-0 in Landesliga - Steiermark on April 19, 2024.

The match was played at Sportzentrum Kalsdorf in Kalsdorf bei Graz.