Kalsdorf 2–1 Bruck an der Mur: Result & Stats

Kalsdorf

FT

2 – 1

Bruck an der Mur

8/22/2023

Landesliga - Steiermark · Steiermark - 1Sportzentrum Kalsdorf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Kalsdorf61%

×Draw19%

Bruck an der Mur20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KalsdorfExpected goals in this matchBruck an der Mur

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.48

1.37

Kalsdorf

2.48

Bruck an der Mur

1.37

Kalsdorf creates 81% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 74 away

2.40

creates per match

1.31

1.43

allows per match

2.57

creates per match

Kalsdorf

2.40

Bruck an der Mur

1.31

allows per match

Kalsdorf

1.43

Bruck an der Mur

2.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kalsdorf+0.00on par

Bruck an der Mur+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kalsdorf ↓

Bruck an der Mur →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Kalsdorf or draw

80%

Kalsdorf or Bruck an der Mur

81%

Draw or Bruck an der Mur

39%

Winning margin

Kalsdorf wins by 2+

40%

Bruck an der Mur wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Kalsdorf 1+ goals

92%

Kalsdorf 2+ goals

70%

Kalsdorf 3+ goals

44%

Bruck an der Mur 1+ goals

75%

Bruck an der Mur 2+ goals

40%

Bruck an der Mur 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Kalsdorf (draw refunded)

75%

Bruck an der Mur (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kalsdorf at home — creates 2.40, concedes 1.43 · 30 matches

Bruck an der Mur away — creates 1.31, concedes 2.57 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kalsdorf attack 2.40 + Bruck an der Mur defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 2.48

Bruck an der Mur attack 1.31 + Kalsdorf defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Kalsdorf scores more

61%

level

19%

Bruck an der Mur scores more

20%

Kalsdorf at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Kalsdorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff