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Kalná nad Hronom vs Vrakuňa — 3. liga - West 2020

Kalná nad Hronom
Kalná nad Hronom
FT
8 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Vrakuňa
Vrakuňa
10/29/20223. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 13Futbalový štadión KFC Kalná nad Hronom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Kalná nad Hronom77%
×Draw14%
Vrakuňa9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kalná nad Hronom
2.98
Vrakuňa
0.97

Kalná nad Hronom creates 207% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 15 away

creates per match

Kalná nad Hronom
1.64
Vrakuňa
0.73

allows per match

Kalná nad Hronom
1.21
Vrakuňa
4.33

finishing

Kalná nad Hronom+0.00on par
Vrakuňa+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kalná nad Hronom ↓

Vrakuňa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–19%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Kalná nad Hronom or draw
91%
Kalná nad Hronom or Vrakuňa
86%
Draw or Vrakuňa
23%

Winning margin

Kalná nad Hronom wins by 2+
57%
Vrakuňa wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Kalná nad Hronom 1+ goals
95%
Kalná nad Hronom 2+ goals
79%
Kalná nad Hronom 3+ goals
56%
Vrakuňa 1+ goals
62%
Vrakuňa 2+ goals
25%
Vrakuňa 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Kalná nad Hronom (draw refunded)
89%
Vrakuňa (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kalná nad Hronom at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.21 · 33 matches

Vrakuňa away — creates 0.73, concedes 4.33 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kalná nad Hronom attack 1.64 + Vrakuňa defence 4.33 → ÷2 → 2.98

Vrakuňa attack 0.73 + Kalná nad Hronom defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Kalná nad Hronom scores more
77%
level
14%
Vrakuňa scores more
9%

Kalná nad Hronom at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Kalná nad Hronom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kalná nad Hronom vs Vrakuňa

Kalná nad Hronom beat Vrakuňa 8-0 in 3. liga - West on October 29, 2022.

The match was played at Futbalový štadión KFC Kalná nad Hronom in Kalná nad Hronom.