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Kalná nad Hronom vs Nové Zámky — 3. liga - West 2020

Kalná nad Hronom
Kalná nad Hronom
CANC
14:00
Nové Zámky
Nové Zámky
3/21/20213. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 17Futbalový štadión KFC Kalná nad Hronom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Kalná nad Hronom60%
×Draw22%
Nové Zámky19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kalná nad Hronom
1.97
Nové Zámky
1.00

Kalná nad Hronom creates 97% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 70 away

creates per match

Kalná nad Hronom
1.64
Nové Zámky
0.80

allows per match

Kalná nad Hronom
1.21
Nové Zámky
2.30

finishing

Kalná nad Hronom+0.00on par
Nové Zámky+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kalná nad Hronom ↓

Nové Zámky →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Kalná nad Hronom or draw
81%
Kalná nad Hronom or Nové Zámky
78%
Draw or Nové Zámky
40%

Winning margin

Kalná nad Hronom wins by 2+
36%
Nové Zámky wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Kalná nad Hronom 1+ goals
86%
Kalná nad Hronom 2+ goals
58%
Kalná nad Hronom 3+ goals
31%
Nové Zámky 1+ goals
63%
Nové Zámky 2+ goals
26%
Nové Zámky 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Kalná nad Hronom (draw refunded)
76%
Nové Zámky (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kalná nad Hronom at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.21 · 33 matches

Nové Zámky away — creates 0.80, concedes 2.30 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kalná nad Hronom attack 1.64 + Nové Zámky defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 1.97

Nové Zámky attack 0.80 + Kalná nad Hronom defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Kalná nad Hronom scores more
60%
level
22%
Nové Zámky scores more
19%

Kalná nad Hronom at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Kalná nad Hronom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kalná nad Hronom face Nové Zámky (3. liga - West)

3. liga - West returns with Kalná nad Hronom hosting Nové Zámky. Match starts March 21, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Kalná nad Hronom host Nové Zámky at Futbalový štadión KFC Kalná nad Hronom.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.