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Kalná nad Hronom vs Malženice — 3. liga - West 2020

Kalná nad Hronom
Kalná nad Hronom
FT
2 – 5
Malženice
Malženice
9/23/20203. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 3Futbalový štadión KFC Kalná nad Hronom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Kalná nad Hronom37%
×Draw25%
Malženice38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kalná nad Hronom
1.42
Malženice
1.45

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 33 home / 39 away

creates per match

Kalná nad Hronom
1.64
Malženice
1.69

allows per match

Kalná nad Hronom
1.21
Malženice
1.21

finishing

Kalná nad Hronom+0.00on par
Malženice+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kalná nad Hronom ↓

Malženice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Kalná nad Hronom or draw
62%
Kalná nad Hronom or Malženice
75%
Draw or Malženice
63%

Winning margin

Kalná nad Hronom wins by 2+
17%
Malženice wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Kalná nad Hronom 1+ goals
76%
Kalná nad Hronom 2+ goals
41%
Kalná nad Hronom 3+ goals
17%
Malženice 1+ goals
77%
Malženice 2+ goals
42%
Malženice 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Kalná nad Hronom (draw refunded)
49%
Malženice (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kalná nad Hronom at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.21 · 33 matches

Malženice away — creates 1.69, concedes 1.21 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kalná nad Hronom attack 1.64 + Malženice defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.42

Malženice attack 1.69 + Kalná nad Hronom defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Kalná nad Hronom scores more
37%
level
25%
Malženice scores more
38%

Malženice at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Malženice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kalná nad Hronom 2 – 5 Malženice

Malženice beat Kalná nad Hronom 5-2 in 3. liga - West on September 23, 2020.

The match was played at Futbalový štadión KFC Kalná nad Hronom in Kalná nad Hronom.