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Kalná nad Hronom vs Jednota Bánová — 3. liga - West 2020

Kalná nad Hronom
Kalná nad Hronom
FT
3 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Jednota Bánová
Jednota Bánová
10/8/20223. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 10Futbalový štadión KFC Kalná nad Hronom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Kalná nad Hronom54%
×Draw23%
Jednota Bánová23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kalná nad Hronom
1.78
Jednota Bánová
1.07

Kalná nad Hronom creates 66% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 46 away

creates per match

Kalná nad Hronom
1.64
Jednota Bánová
0.93

allows per match

Kalná nad Hronom
1.21
Jednota Bánová
1.93

finishing

Kalná nad Hronom+0.00on par
Jednota Bánová+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kalná nad Hronom ↓

Jednota Bánová →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Kalná nad Hronom or draw
77%
Kalná nad Hronom or Jednota Bánová
77%
Draw or Jednota Bánová
46%

Winning margin

Kalná nad Hronom wins by 2+
30%
Jednota Bánová wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Kalná nad Hronom 1+ goals
83%
Kalná nad Hronom 2+ goals
53%
Kalná nad Hronom 3+ goals
26%
Jednota Bánová 1+ goals
66%
Jednota Bánová 2+ goals
29%
Jednota Bánová 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Kalná nad Hronom (draw refunded)
70%
Jednota Bánová (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kalná nad Hronom at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.21 · 33 matches

Jednota Bánová away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.93 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kalná nad Hronom attack 1.64 + Jednota Bánová defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.78

Jednota Bánová attack 0.93 + Kalná nad Hronom defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Kalná nad Hronom scores more
54%
level
23%
Jednota Bánová scores more
23%

Kalná nad Hronom at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Kalná nad Hronom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kalná nad Hronom vs Jednota Bánová

Kalná nad Hronom beat Jednota Bánová 3-2 in 3. liga - West on October 8, 2022.

The match was played at Futbalový štadión KFC Kalná nad Hronom in Kalná nad Hronom.