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Kalná nad Hronom vs Inter Bratislava — 3. liga - West 2020

Kalná nad Hronom
Kalná nad Hronom
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Inter Bratislava
Inter Bratislava
10/22/20223. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 12Futbalový štadión KFC Kalná nad Hronom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Kalná nad Hronom44%
×Draw24%
Inter Bratislava32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kalná nad Hronom
1.61
Inter Bratislava
1.34

Kalná nad Hronom creates 20% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 31 away

creates per match

Kalná nad Hronom
1.64
Inter Bratislava
1.48

allows per match

Kalná nad Hronom
1.21
Inter Bratislava
1.58

finishing

Kalná nad Hronom+0.00on par
Inter Bratislava+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kalná nad Hronom ↓

Inter Bratislava →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Kalná nad Hronom or draw
68%
Kalná nad Hronom or Inter Bratislava
76%
Draw or Inter Bratislava
56%

Winning margin

Kalná nad Hronom wins by 2+
22%
Inter Bratislava wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Kalná nad Hronom 1+ goals
80%
Kalná nad Hronom 2+ goals
48%
Kalná nad Hronom 3+ goals
22%
Inter Bratislava 1+ goals
74%
Inter Bratislava 2+ goals
39%
Inter Bratislava 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Kalná nad Hronom (draw refunded)
58%
Inter Bratislava (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kalná nad Hronom at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.21 · 33 matches

Inter Bratislava away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.58 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kalná nad Hronom attack 1.64 + Inter Bratislava defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.61

Inter Bratislava attack 1.48 + Kalná nad Hronom defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Kalná nad Hronom scores more
44%
level
24%
Inter Bratislava scores more
32%

Kalná nad Hronom at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Kalná nad Hronom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - West: Kalná nad Hronom 1–0 Inter Bratislava

Kalná nad Hronom beat Inter Bratislava 1-0 in 3. liga - West on October 22, 2022.

The match was played at Futbalový štadión KFC Kalná nad Hronom in Kalná nad Hronom.