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Kalmar W vs Örebro SK W — Elitettan 2021

Kalmar W
Kalmar W
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Örebro SK W
Örebro SK W
9/29/2024ElitettanElitettan · Round 21Gröndals IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Kalmar W40%
×Draw24%
Örebro SK W36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kalmar W
1.53
Örebro SK W
1.45

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 26 home / 31 away

creates per match

Kalmar W
1.35
Örebro SK W
1.13

allows per match

Kalmar W
1.77
Örebro SK W
1.71

finishing

Kalmar W+0.00on par
Örebro SK W+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kalmar W ↓

Örebro SK W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Kalmar W or draw
64%
Kalmar W or Örebro SK W
76%
Draw or Örebro SK W
60%

Winning margin

Kalmar W wins by 2+
19%
Örebro SK W wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Kalmar W 1+ goals
78%
Kalmar W 2+ goals
45%
Kalmar W 3+ goals
20%
Örebro SK W 1+ goals
77%
Örebro SK W 2+ goals
42%
Örebro SK W 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Kalmar W (draw refunded)
52%
Örebro SK W (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kalmar W at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.77 · 26 matches

Örebro SK W away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.71 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kalmar W attack 1.35 + Örebro SK W defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.53

Örebro SK W attack 1.13 + Kalmar W defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Kalmar W scores more
40%
level
24%
Örebro SK W scores more
36%

Kalmar W at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Kalmar W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elitettan: Kalmar W 3–2 Örebro SK W

Kalmar W beat Örebro SK W 3-2 in Elitettan on September 29, 2024.

The match was played at Gröndals IP in Kalmar.